NEW DELHI:The safest assessment about India’s upcoming Lok Sabha elections is: it’s all about whether Narendra Modi becomes India’s prime minister or not.

 

Credit goes to Namo, as he is popularly known (Na for Narendra and Mo for Modi), for being the only declared prime ministerial candidate in the field. Not many have thought that Modi’s elevation from Gujarat’s chief minister to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s candidate for prime minister will be as smooth as it turned out to be. Other parties, including the Indian National Congress (INC), have kept their candidates for the top post in the wings to be announced after taking into account the poll results. The results will be announced on May 16 after nine phases of polls starting from April 7, which will see the biggest electoral college of 814.45 million Indians voting for the 16th Lok Sabha (lower house). Only time will tell whether it was a wise move by the BJP to announce

 

Modi’s candidature before the polls. Some moderate voters might stayaway from the BJP because of Modi’s extreme views, particularly hisdubious role in Gujarat’s 2002 anti-Muslim riots. But Modi happens tobe the only BJP choice, based largely on his development model inGujarat, who has the potential to deliver. In any case, pollsshow an upward graph for the BJP ever since Modi became a candidatefor PM. Indian media group IBN-CNN, in a poll conducted jointly withEnglish daily The Hindu in July 2013, predicted 149 to 157 seats in a House of 543 for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the INC(other notable parties include Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist CongressParty and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal). And the pollsgave 172 to 180 seats to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led bythe BJP, which includes Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and Shiv Sena inMaharashtra.

 

The same media group, CNN IBN, in a poll conducted in February 2014,reduced the UPA seats to between 119 and 139 (INC 94-110) and increasedprediction for the NDA seats to between 212 to 232 (BJP 193-213). Another media group, Times Now-India Today also reduced its polls results for UPA in July 2013 to 134 seats (INC 119) to 101 seats (INC 89) in February 2014 while increased the tally of NDA from 156 seats (BJP 131) to 227 seats (BJP 202) in the same polls.But then Indian pollsters and media pundits have a history ofblundering predictions. The biggest upset happened in 2004 when mostexperts could not see Vajpayee’s ‘India Shining’ campaign crumbling toa crushing defeat. Again, most experts failed to predict ManmohanSingh’s re-election as prime minister in 2009, the only one toachieve the feat after Jawaharlal Nehru, with the Congress adding awhopping 80 more seats to its previous tally.

 

Whatever their worth, most pollsters predict BJP winning between 170 and210 seats (NDA 190-230). The large window of 40 seats is because ofthe potential spoiler, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal.Clearly, the Congress is on its way down because of Manmohan Singh’sspineless leadership, corruption charges and dwindling economicgrowth. But it is yet to be seen how much of the urban voters,disenchanted from the Congress, will be swayed by Kejriwal. The AAPmay have disappointed a few voters in Delhi by opting out of the stategovernment, but it jolted India’s caste-ridden, crony capitalistpolitics by presenting itself as potential alternative. It is quiteclose to what PTI voters in Pakistan wanted Imran Khan to be. Punditsdo not give it more than 20 to 40 seats but acknowledge its impactnationwide, particularly damaging the BJP. Kejriwal’s call to contestagainst Modi from Varanasi (Banaras) may have raised his nationalstature besides making it the hottest contest in India.

 

For BJP, bagging 200 plus seats is easier said than done. BJPstalwarts see a ‘Modi wave’ that will carry the only PM candidate intopower. Not so easy, say his opponents. “Why should he run from twoseats if he is so sure about his wave,” said journalist B. MuralidharReddy of daily The Hindu. Many insist that it’s nothing as the waveafter the Kargil war, which got Vajpayee 270 seats. The BJP managedonly 86 seats in 1989 despite the Ramjanambhoomi movement and 161seats despite the frenzy created by Rath Yatra and the demolition ofBabri Masjid before the 1996 polls.

 

The 200-plus figure becomes more difficult as the BJP is contestingonly 350 seats out of 543. It will have to milk the north India cowbelt much more vigorously, particularly in Utter Pradesh (80 seats)and Bihar (40 seats). One reason for Modi’s decision to contest fromVaranasi is that he wants to garner support in East UP and Bihar. TheBJP target of 70 seats out of 120 in UP and Bihar sounds ambitious asit got only 22 in 2009 (UP 10, Bihar 12). In the caste-ridden UP,Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party (23 national seats plus the rulingparty in state government) remains well entrenched with Muslim support and Mayawati sits on a virtually Dalit monopoly (20 seats). Things areequally troubled for the BJP in Bihar with Chief Minister Nitish Kumarparting ways with the BJP over Modi’s candidature.But even if the BJP-led NDA gets the highest number of 230 seatspredicted by some pollsters, it will be daunting for Namo to make hisgovernment. The question remains how he will get the remaining 42seats required for the magical number of 272 to make the government. Unlike Vajpayee, Namo remains politically isolated. He is a virtual pariah for Samajwadi Party, Left parties and for the JanataDal (United) of Nitish Kumar, who sees himself as a prime ministerialcandidate. Among them, we are talking about 80 to 100 seats. Another100 seats are monopolised by the triumvirate of strong Indianwomen – Tamil Nadu’s Jayalalitha, Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee and UP’sMayawati. They are known to be hard bargainers and are vying for a chance of a lifetime to become India’s prime minister. If Congressmanages to get close to 130 seats and the BJP gets under 170, there isa big chance of any of these ladies – and half a dozengentlemen – becoming the prime minister.

 

Namo might have a BJP rival as a consensual candidate in the traditionof Vajpayee, who might be acceptable to allies outside the NDA. Trustthe RSS, its chief recently stopped workers from chanting “Namo, Namo”as it does not promote personality cults. Lal Krishna Advani may bedown but is definitely not out, particularly after Modi’s brushingaway of the old guard.Nutshell: Even if Namo crosses all these difficult bridges and makeshis government it will still be, at best, a fragile government.Remember how Jayalalitha brought down the Vajpayee government in 1998 byjust one vote. Namo, Namo but not yet.

Published on: thespokesman.pk

Date: Tuesday, 25 March 2014