Amir Mateen
Islamabad-What should be the bigger priority for Pakistan: the carnage in Gaza or a Gaza-like situation in Pakistan where the government has called in Army for Islamabad’s protection.
Well, the opposition in the National Assembly was almost unanimous that the invocation of Article 245 of the Constitution to call in Army was a graver issue. Here is the logic: there was no disagreement on Gaza; everybody agreed that it was ghastly tragic; so let’s just condemn it through a resolution and move on to a graver situation at hand. Some believed that the government had conceded that it had failed to protect the citizens. The argument goes that if they can’t protect a mass of two million Islooites how can they guard the 200 million Pakistanis. If the Army had to do it in the end why not give the entire country on rent to the military. Others opined that the suspension of fundamental rights in Islamabad amounted to gross violation of human rights and would encourage the Army to trespass on the civilian turf. Still others cooked up more conspiratorial theories – the most sinister being that this would pit the military against the public in the run-up to the PTI rally. Many actually thought that this was precisely the PML (N) design to engineer PTI conflict with the military.
There were many ‘what if’ scenarios doing the rounds: What if the situation got out of hand on August 14? What if the PTI rally was not allowed to enter Islamabad and Imran Khan was arrested? What if the Army refuses to obey the civilian orders to counter public agitation? After all this is a political situation, not a military combat. In any case, the military has a bigger mess to clear in Fata right now.
But the two most important persons who could have answered the ominous queries – Chaudhary Nisar and Imran Khan – were missing from the house (till the filing of this report). In fact, the entire front row of senior government ministers was vacant. The prime minister, who showed extra interest in the budget session, may have lost his vigour now. But the glaring omission was that of Chaudhry Nisar. After all, it was largely his call to invite the Army in Islamabad despite, we are told, intense opposition. It was later that the Army pressed the government to invoke Article 245. The Army has learnt its lessons in Balochistan and would not like to entangle itself with unnecessary legalities. If you need us bring us with legal power was the message conveyed by the top brass.
It makes sense in Nisar’s case. It’s been downhill even since he joined the interior ministry. After the mishandling of the Sikandar episode, the district court’s bombing, not to forget a whole year that he wasted in trying to woo Taliban, Nisar has simply lost it. His whole argument about inviting the Army revolved around an exaggerated intelligence about the blowback effect of Zarb-i-Azb. The truth is that Nisar would not like to take any responsibility – even if this undermines the government writ and popularity.
But then if he had the guts, or lack of it, to call in the Army he should have been there in Parliament to take the flak on the chin and not quarantine himself in his favourite Punjab House.
However, Imran Khan had even more tongues wagging. What is the skipper up to? Nobody seemed to have a clue. Even PTI members were found as confused as others. The electoral reform mantra may not have the popular appeal. Many thought that the issues like load-shedding and inflation had bigger potential to trigger popular attention. And then he may have chosen the wrong place and the wrong people to push for electoral reforms. At the end of the day, electoral reforms will have to be sorted out by Parliament of which Imran Khan happens to be a part. In any case Parliament has already formed a committee to work on that.
Many question the skipper’s logic. Even if his best hopes of mid-term polls materialise the elections would be held under the same old rules. So it makes sense that he first reforms the electoral rules before taking to the streets. But then it is difficult to judge Imran on the basis of political logic. And this is a view shared by many PTI leaders if you talk to them in private. Many were visibly upset over the fate of the party, if not their hard won membership.
Logically, there are just two ways in which mid-term elections are possible. One is if Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif dissolves the National Assembly and calls for new elections. The chances of this happening seem next to nil. Darbar insiders say that, come dungeons, exile or execution, Nawaz Sharif will not do that. The second option is military takeover. No matter how much concern Mahmood Khan Achakzai may express and warn the “black sheep among our ranks” this ain’t happening either. Though anything is possible in Pakistan, as in most banana republics, but it does not make political sense. Why should they bet on a bigger maverick Imran Khan who is still not fully supportive of the biggest battle of our history?
The only worry is that Nisar may just copy what his best pal did in Model Town, Lahore and create a situation out of nothing. However, we are told that the centre of power has shifted from the Punjab House to the PM House. How about Nawaz Sharif making Imran Khan head of the electoral reforms committee. We might hear from the PM something drastic one of these days.
The News
August 5, 2014